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ICS-digital’s Charlotte Green outlines why the sultanate could lead regionally
While travel opportunities across the Middle East continue to be affected by the uncertainties of 2026 – with Oxford Economics forecasting that international arrivals to the region could decline by up to 27% year-on-year – there remains good reason for cautious optimism.
Which destination is best placed to emerge strongest when confidence returns, and how can travel brands prepare in a way that’s sustainable, practical and cost-effective?
Looking at tourism trends alongside search data offers some interesting clues, with one destination standing out: Oman.
Rewind three years and the Middle East’s recovery after Covid offers a useful snapshot of what late 2026 and early 2027 could look like. Back then, uncertainty reshaped travel flows, but it didn’t reduce people’s desire to travel. According to Dubai’s Department of Economy and Tourism (DET), Dubai welcomed 17.15 million international visitors in 2023, up 19% year-on-year, while hotel occupancy averaged more than 75%, driven by pent-up demand and targeted marketing campaigns.
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Today’s situation feels different, but the lesson remains the same: demand doesn’t disappear, it shifts. That could leave Oman in a particularly strong position. Defined by its diverse landscapes, rich culture and steadily expanding tourism offering, the sultanate entered this latest period of uncertainty with momentum already behind it.
Let’s be clear from the outset: Oman doesn’t enjoy the same global destination profile as Dubai. Yet even before current geopolitical tensions, it was experiencing sustained tourism growth, thanks in large part to Vision 2040 and continued government investment.
The long-term strategy aims to increase tourism’s contribution to GDP, diversify the economy, attract foreign investment beyond oil and create sustainable employment – and the results are becoming increasingly visible. European tour operators have expanded Oman itineraries, airlines have increased capacity from key gateways, including London and Frankfurt, and the destination is appearing more frequently in travel media as an alternative Middle East holiday.
Importantly, those plans haven’t stalled. In June 2026, the Ministry of Heritage and Tourism introduced the Executive Regulation of the Tourism Law to strengthen governance, improve service standards and continue developing experiential and nature-based tourism.
Visitor data tells a similar story. According to the National Center for Statistics and Information, Oman welcomed around 3.8 million foreign visitors during 2024-25, while the World Travel & Tourism Council estimates tourism contributes around 3.3% of the country’s GDP.
In accommodation, three- to five-star hotel stays across Oman increased 10.8% to 2.4 million. During the first two months of 2026, hotel revenue across the same category rose 18.5% year on year, with occupancy climbing to 68.4%.
Oman wasn’t waiting for a recovery story to begin – it already had one. If delayed travel demand returns as confidence improves, it could accelerate an already positive growth trajectory rather than create one from scratch.
Tourism performance is only part of the picture. Search behaviour often provides an early indication of where demand is heading.
Semrush data shows UK searches for "Oman holidays" increased from around 3,600 a month in April 2025 to 6,600 in April 2026. Searches for "holidays to Oman" also rose from 1,000 to 1,300 over the same period. Google Trends also recorded peak search interest in Oman during 2025, with demand continuing to strengthen this year despite regional uncertainty. This is one of the clearest indicators that traveller intent isn’t slowing – it’s growing.
What’s particularly interesting is that Oman still occupies a relatively under-served digital space. Dubai understandably generates much higher search volumes, but Semrush rates ranking for Oman travel terms as considerably easier. That creates an opportunity for travel businesses to build visibility before competition inevitably catches up.
Long-tail searches are growing too. Phrases such as "Oman what to see" have almost doubled year-on-year, suggesting travellers are moving beyond inspiration and actively researching itineraries. That’s exactly the type of intent travel brands should be paying attention to. For travel companies, this isn’t simply about attracting more visitors. It’s about recognising where digital investment is likely to deliver the greatest return.
Google Ads targeting Oman-related searches currently command significantly lower cost-per-click rates than comparable Dubai keywords, allowing brands to achieve greater visibility with more modest budgets. Core pages focused on holidays, attractions or flights can be supported by content addressing emerging search queries around airspace, accessibility and travel conditions. That not only improves search performance but also strengthens authority as AI-powered search increasingly rewards trusted, up-to-date content.
The encouraging part is that this approach can be adopted by travel businesses of every size.
Following periods of uncertainty, travellers consistently show greater interest in nature, open spaces, authentic experiences and longer, more meaningful holidays. Oman naturally aligns with those preferences.
Without changing its tourism proposition, the country offers exactly the type of experiences many travellers increasingly seek. Projects such as The Malkai, a multi-location luxury hospitality concept launching in 2026, reflect that shift by encouraging visitors to experience Oman’s coastlines, mountains and desert landscapes as part of a single journey rather than a traditional short-stay city break.
For travel brands, the takeaway is clear. Oman isn’t simply weathering regional instability. It is quietly positioning itself to benefit from it.
The combination of redirected demand, rising search interest, continued government investment and relatively low digital competition creates a rare opportunity. Beware, though: opportunities like this rarely remain open for long.
As visibility catches up with demand, competition will intensify and customer acquisition costs will inevitably rise, much as they did in Dubai following the post-pandemic recovery. Oman today sits at a similar inflection point.The brands that invest now – building structured, intent-led content, increasing their visibility and aligning with the growing demand for experiential travel – will be best placed to capture the next wave of growth.
Late 2026 may not simply tell a story of tourism recovery, but a story of redistribution, with Oman well placed to be one of the region’s biggest winners.
For more information, visit www.ics-digital.com