Global air travel demand to more than double by 2050, says IATA

According to the latest Long-Term Demand Projections made by International Air Transport Association (IATA), estimated before the breakout of the Israel-US-Iran war, air travel demand was set to double worldwide by 2050.

Projections are based on IATA’s global econometric model, incorporating factors such as GDP per capita, population and airline capacity.

The forecast suggested that demand will exceed 20 trillion revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) by 2050, up from 9 trillion in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.1%.

According to the outlook, growth will vary across regions, shaped by differences in market maturity, economic development, demographics and connectivity. The impact of the ongoing conflict spreading across the Gulf remains to be seen.

Globally, Africa and Asia-Pacific were expected to be the fastest growing regions, with CAGRs of 3.8% and 3.6% respectively, while Europe and North America will expand more slowly at rates below 3%.  

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On a route basis, intra-Africa and Africa–Asia-Pacific corridors were expected to see the strongest growth, followed by intra-Asia-Pacific and Asia-Pacific–Middle East markets, though Middle East markets have stalled since the conflict began while Asia-Pacific routes have seen a boost as airlines bypass the turbulent Middle East. Several of these routes were forecast to grow between 4% and 5% annually, highlighting a shift in global aviation demand towards emerging markets. 

While demand for air travel remains robust, growth is gradually slowing as markets mature, with annual expansion projected at around 3.1% by 2050, down from 4.5% between 1998 and 2024. 

Interestingly, the report also spotlights the lasting impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, which has caused a permanent shift in global aviation demand, with a structural gap unlikely to fully return to pre-pandemic growth trends even by 2050. The full impact of the Israel-US-Iran war on aviation is yet to be realised. 

One of the immediate consequences of the war is the postponement of major travel sector events in the region, including the annual Airport Show, originally scheduled to take place at Dubai World Trade Centre from 12 to 14 May, and now rescheduled to 12 to 14 October 2026.

For more information, visit iata.org